As the calendar turns to January 18, 2026, millions of Americans are opening their mailboxes and email inboxes to find a new kind of tax document. Following the explosive growth of prediction markets throughout 2025—a year defined by massive volume in election contracts, Fed rate cut forecasts, and climate milestones—the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) is [...]
The meteoric rise of event-based contracts has reached a legislative boiling point. Following a series of high-profile trades that appeared to anticipate classified government actions, Washington has responded with the "Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026." Introduced on January 9, 2026, by Representative Ritchie Torres (D-NY), the bill seeks to bring the [...]
As of January 18, 2026, the world of prediction markets is no longer a niche hobby for economists and crypto-enthusiasts—it is a multi-billion dollar information industry. While real-money giants like Polymarket and Kalshi capture the headlines with massive handles on geopolitical events, a quieter, play-money revolution is happening at Manifold Markets. Despite using a proprietary, [...]
As of mid-January 2026, a fundamental shift has occurred in how Wall Street and Main Street digest economic reality. For decades, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s "Nowcast" and other lagging indicators were the gold standard for tracking the economy in real-time. But as the dust settles on the Federal Reserve's December 2025 meeting, [...]
As we look back from the vantage point of January 2026, the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election is increasingly viewed not just as a political realignment, but as a total disruption of the forecasting industry. For decades, traditional polling was the undisputed king of election intelligence. However, the 2024 cycle saw the emergence of the "Nate [...]
The long-standing wall between artificial intelligence and elite human intuition is beginning to crumble. For years, the "superforecaster"—a subset of humans with extraordinary cognitive flexibility and statistical rigor—was considered the gold standard for predicting global events. However, data from the October 2025 ForecastBench report suggests that the "human edge" is evaporating at an accelerating rate. [...]
As of January 18, 2026, the landscape of American finance is undergoing a seismic shift that few saw coming four years ago. Polymarket, once the "offshore pariah" of the prediction market world, has successfully executed a multi-step regulatory maneuver to return to the United States. Following a period of exile that began with a CFTC [...]
In the span of just ten months, prediction markets have transitioned from a niche obsession of political junkies and crypto-enthusiasts to a cornerstone of the modern retail brokerage experience. As of January 18, 2026, the industry is reeling from a staggering milestone: Robinhood Markets, Inc. (NASDAQ: HOOD) has processed over 11 billion contracts through its [...]
The era of "underground" political wagering officially ended not with a whimper, but with a gavel. As we move into the first quarter of 2026, the ripple effects of Kalshi’s landmark legal victory over the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) have transformed the U.S. financial landscape. What began as a niche legal challenge in late [...]
The financial landscape shifted permanently in October 2025 when the Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE: ICE), the powerhouse parent of the New York Stock Exchange, announced a staggering $2 billion strategic investment into Polymarket. This move didn't just inject capital; it effectively minted prediction markets as the new "truth engine" of global finance. At the time of [...]
In this video, I provide an Elliott Wave analysis of the Nasdaq 100, discussing the market's position within a long-term third wave that began in 2002.
Charlie Munger learned from an early age that talented people can behave irrationally. He focused on understanding this behavior and avoiding it, leading to his principles of worldly wisdom and investing success.
